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I MF Economic Outlook October 2026 : Resilience Under Strain ,Urgent Choices

GLOBAL SCENARIO During the last seven years global economy has witnessed severe stress in terms of pandemic induced disruption in global supply chains, the wars in Ukraine and Middle East, consequent sharp increase in energy  and commodity prices. Consequently significant changes in trade barriers further impacted resilience of households, firms,financial markets and governments. The resilience can be measured in terms of IMF's global growth forecast .Resilience is unevenly distributed. The technology cycle has provided a demand impulse driven by strong investment in Artificial Intelligence. The interaction  of forces like geopolitics and technology produced a split in global economy. Favourable terms of trade or technology related exports and investment give some countries a cushion as against higher import bill and weaker demand for others. Use of buffers and adaptability have helped few to tide over fiscal and external stress WORLD GDP GROWTH IMF's World Economic Outlook pr...
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2026 NOBEL PRIZE FOR MICRO ECONOMIC FOUNDATIONS OF MARO ECONOMIC STABILIZATION.

2026 ECONOMICS NOBEL FOR MACRO STABILITY The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences decided to award 2026 Alfred Nobel Economics  Prize to two Americans Robert E.Hall of Stanford University and Michael Woodford of Columbia University for their path breaking micro studies for macroeconomic policy of stabilisation. Both Robert E Hall and Michael Woodford have developed new macro economic models that drastically changed our ability to implemen effective stabilization policy that can significantly reduce economy's peaks and trough conditions. Their research transformed modern economic policy building models based on individual household and business decisions rather than mere aggregate statistical links.Their work provided the theoretical framework for New Keynesian Economics that enables  Central Banks and Governments to design more effective monetary, fiscal and other policies to reduce economic booms and busts.It may be noted here that after J M Keynes introduced stabilisation theor...
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RBI'S HAWKISH MONETARY POLICY , OCTOBER 2026.

 INCREASE IN REPO RATE  RBI's Monetary policy Committee meeting concluded on October 7th 2026  and tohe Central Bank announced a  hike in  repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% first time  increase, since February 2023. Accordingly the MPC has shifted it's Monetary policy stance from " neutral to "Caliberated tightening "to address increasing inflationary pressures induced by elevated crude prices, ongoing West Asian crisis and global uncertainties. Similarly BI has upgraded GDP forecasts to 7.1% for Fy 2026-27 ,it projected CPI Inflation  at 5.2% for FY 2027.Along with inreased repo rate of 5.50% ,standing Deposit Facility (SDF) raised to 5.25 from 5.0 % and Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) and bank rate inreased to 5.75% from 5.50%. BACKGROUND  Through caliberated tightening RBI has signaled the easing cycle  with probability of vulnerabilities like crude prices near $116 per barrel, a weak monsoon,high food prices and broadening of inflati...
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UNITED NATIONS : HOW TO RESTORE TRUST AND MANAGE TRANSFORMATION .Z

 UNO After the second world War  United Nations Organisation was established to make the actions of different nations state more predictable, by creating adequate  space  for  dialogue with  elaborate structural frame work for the  application of appropriate  international law.Officially UN was established on October 24,1945 after major nations ratified the U N charter including, China,France,Soviet Union and the United Kingdom.After completing 80 annual meetings so far,  the theme of the present 81st  session of United Nations General Assembly held recently was" Restoring Trust, managing transformation:A United Nations that Delivers for All".Ironically  currently the global confidence in multilateralism has plunged to the historic low .Hence concentrating the pillars of Peace,security development are very much significant in restoring trust.It is also  required that UNO must actively involve in addressing common grievances lik...
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THREAT OF TARRIF WAR AGIANST IMPORT OF RUSSIAN OIL BY USA.

PAST EXPERIENCE  Eventhough Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974 have been used against  India in the past , major impact occurred following the Pokhran II nuclear test by India in May 1998. US and it's allies imposed economic ,technological and military Sanctions against the country . At that time India withstood the impact through a combination of policies including diplomatic persistence, domestic resilience and economic diversification. To offset  the loss of foreign aid and loan assistance  Indian Government successfully launched the" Resergent India Bond Scheme"  and about $ 4 billion were promptly mobilised from Non Resident Indians and  Indian diaspora. India also  diversified its trade partnership with Russia, European Union, and Middle East countries for defense and energy.Even though sanctions led to temporary slackening of Infrastructural projects and dip in India's exports to US,,India's ongoing  economic liberalisation and vibrant...
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18th BRICS SUMMIT:OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES

  EVOLUTION OF BRICS  Although the idea of BRIC was originally mooted by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O Niell in 2001to highlight the global prospect of fast growing markets of economies like Brazil, Russia, India and China, the first meeting was held 2006 in New York and after that first summit was held in Russia in 2009.South Africa joined in 2010- 11,making the group as BRICS. and by 2024 -25 the organization was expanded with the new entry of  countries like Iran,Egypt. Ethiopia, the  UAE,and Indonesia . As of now the  BRICS + countries are able to design policies and strategies to bolster global supply Chains  boost resilience against pandemic and climate change. Leaders are also voicing concerns against weaponisation of currencies and tariffs, weaponisation of critical minerals and technology.  18th BRICS SUMMIT  The 18th BRICS Summit was  hosted by India on 12-13 September 26  amidst crucial geopolitical risks and uncertainties. Of...
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LESSONS FROM NEPAL FLASH FLOODS

GLACIERS AND FLASH FLOODS  On 26th August morning 2026 a series of  flash floods hit and terribly destroyed the Gyirong  check post on the China-Nepal border .Due to the impact it struck dozens of settlements along the 72km stretch of the of the Trishul river in Nepal.The perciptating geological event has believed to be the  outcome of  collapse of a enormous glacier slab that caused unprecedented chain reaction which  plunged kilometers below. Resultant flash floods and mud slides thatoccured  around not only  in Nepal but also along China Nepal border connecting Rasuwa district of Nepal and Gyrongo county.Almost the entire market towns like Betrawati,were buried  under debris of thick mud and different 9000types of residuals, submerging buildings up to  upper floors. The crossing between  China and Nepal territory has been very vital in providing bulk of  economic activities ranging from daily traffic related to trade,tourism...
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