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DECLINE IN GLOBAL CRUDE PRICES AND INDIA'S EXTERNAL SECTOR.

INDIA'S EXTERNAL SECTOR  The geo political conflicts and trade disruptions have been impacting much awaited resilience of global economy. Extended supply side pressures have led to persistent increase in commodity prices and consequentlly rising inflationary pressures till early June 2026. In this context World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects  projected the global growth to slow down to 3.4 %.Expectations varied between major Advanced Economies (AE) and Emerging Markets and developing Economies (EMDES).Such variations are  attributed to volatile capital flows,energy prices and shifting global trade patterns and dynamics. India's external sector is also facing unprecedented problems. In India energy vulnerability is primarily due to heavy import dependence of nearly 85% of India's crude oil requirements making it highly vulnerable to global price fluctuations. Usually rising oil prices  are also followed by geopolitical tensions (as in West Asia) which consequ...
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SATHEESAN'S KERALA DREAM BUDGET 2026-27 : FEW OBSERVATIONS

Kerala  Chief  Minister VD Satheesan's maiden budget envisages an ambitious 5 year growth plan, attracting private investment in key sectors with major policy shift from remittances to the investment economy. The state Government is looking beyond traditional diaspora contributions to chart its next phase of economic growth. Eventhough remittances has been supporting the state's  economy for deades  future requires a shift  beyond dependence on remittances towards an investment driven economic model. Budget 2026-27 envisages total Revenue expenditure of ₹205001•67 crores ,Revenue reciepts of ₹169646•37 crores .Other disturbing features are a staggering 77 % of total Revenue expenditure on salaries, pensions and interest payments. The capital expenditure has plummeted to mere 1.3% of Gross State Domestic Product of Kerala one of the lowest in the country. The state's Own Tax Revenue (SOTR) also fell from 6.94% in 2015-16 to 6.41% in 2025-26 against national avera...
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KERALA 'S FISCAL HEALTH STATUS: FEW OBSERVATIONS

 The White Paper on Fiscal strength of Kerala placed in the state legislature on June 4th 2026 prepared by  an expert  team chaired by former cabinet Secretary KM Chandrasekhar  revealed that on the fiscal front Kerala currently faces a large burden of outstanding liabilities of ₹ 5.07 lakh crores estimated to be 35.5%" of Gross State Domestic Product,In contrast to the national all  state average is 29.2% .Most importantly Kerala's  committed expenditure on salaries, wages,and pensions estimated to take a lions share of 77.6% of revenue reciepts in 2025-26 as  against all state's average of 46.4% for the country. Accordingly an estimated 1.3% of GSDP is  only available for essential capital  expenditure. The Paper recommended to Revamp the KIIFBI Act 2016 and suggested to be brought under the Budgetary control of the administrative departments concerned and the Finance Department. The transition of KIIFBI should be restructured The Kerala in...
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MONETARY POLICY JUNE 2026: IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA'S EXTERNAL SECTOR.

MONETARY POLICY JUNE 2026:  Monetary policy Committee (MPC) meeting held from June 3rd to June 5 2026  unanimously decided to retain policy rates and  the repo rate unchanged at 5.25 % and continue a neutral policy  stance. Accordingly Cash Reserve ratio ( CRR) remained at 3%,SDF  rate  at 5.00%,MSF rate at 5.50 % ,and bank rate at 5.50%.This decision was taken due to factors like heightened globail uncertainties, particularly the ongoing and uncertain conflict in West  Asia which in turn elevated energy prices and inflicted supply chain disruptions.  In the existing scenario RBI lowered its GDP growth projections for  Fy 2026-27 to 6.6 % from earlier 6.9 % level.Quarterly projections of GDP indicated that during Q1 fall in growth projections would be from 6.8 % to 6.6%, in Q2 from 6.7% to 6.3%, in Q3 from 7% to 6.5% and in Q4 from 7.2 % to 6.8 %.It may be noted here that the Provisional GDP estimates released by the Ministry of Statistics an...
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IMPLICATIONS OF UNITED ARAB EMIRATES (UAEs) EXIT FROM OPEC .

OPEC AND OPEC + The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) an intergovernmental Organisation  established on  14th September 1960 in Bhagdhad with initial 5 members  namely Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela were instrumental in making wide range  of global impacts in later years  due to heavy dependence of other country's on imports from OPEC members- petroleum products for energy consumption. At present with 11 member nations OPEC is estimated  to control 79.5% of the world's proven oil reserves that are located within OPEC members wherein Middle East alone accounts for 67.2 % of OPEC s total reserves. It may be recalled here that first time forging of oi weapon and exercising of OPEC's cartel's monopoly power were exercised in October 1973 when oil prices were shot up several fold.Obviously non oil developing countries were worst affected.On the other hand advanced economies could neutralized the negative impact  by enhanci...
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WORLD INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY DAY 2026.

 INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY  World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO) celebrate Intellectual Property Day every year on 26th April since 2000 to create awareness about how  patents, copyrights trademarks and designs impact our day today life.Intellectual property is integral to creation of human mind  which could be incorporated as creative or inventive work like-inventions ,artistic works,books,music, films, designs etc. According to Albert Einstein the creation of human mind is interlinked with power of imagination and the ability to stand on existing foundation of accepted knowledge and see beyond to the next frontier of discovery. In effect that is the source of personal cultural and economic advancement. The idea of Intellectual property originated from the realization that let individuals reap exclusive fruits of human intellect from their knowledge, creativity, expertise, skills, scientific and traditional resources research and work experience. In other wor...
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WEST ASIAN CRISIS : IMPLICATIONS OF VARIOUS REPORTS AND OBSERVATIONS ABOUT IMPACTS.

Unfolding of the  Israel-US - Iran  war crisis already started impinging both the global economy and Indian economy particularly in energy, threatening energy security, disrupting trade routes and  widening trade deficit and current account deficit. Energy prices and inflation rates are positively correlated.In India rise in fuel prices, LPG prices both domestic and commercial along with shortage and consequent elevation of price of fertilizers  which is essential ingredients for  farm input etc are bound to make not only higher inflationary trends but also a decline in agricultural output possibly in forthcoming Khariff season.Apart from agriculture,  energy crisis is bound affect a large number of industries and products like textiles, paints, cement, tyres, fertilizers and chemicals etc. Global trade and movements of goods across Red Sea and Suez Canal are being disrupted, necessitating  rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope resulting in 15-20 days ad...
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