EMPLOYMENT SCENARIO

 Economic policy making generally focus on increasing growth in income,output and employment along with maintaining price stability and balance of Payments stability.Employment results  not only in income generation but also is crucial to provide one's dignity, welfare and development. Economic growth without a corresponding rise in employment opportunities amounts to growth without social justice. Nation's progress largely depends on the participation of workforce in the process of economic growth. Employment is very vital both for poverty  eradication and raising the standard of living of the people. In mid 1980s and later after the introduction of economic reforms in 1990s country invariably  achieved higher growth in income and output coming out of the decades old " Hindu rate of growth ".Growth trajectory witnessed not only a steady decline in share of agriculture in GDP from 30% in 1990-91 to 18% in 2019-20 but also a steady increase in the share of non agricultural output in total production  

Employment refers to a situation where people are getting jobs  as per their skill education / experience.Unemployment on the other hand refers to a situation where people are willing to work as per the prevailing wage rate and skill level but unable to get jobs. Two major sources of data on employment and work force have been the decennial population census and also the survey  conducted by National Sample Survey office (NSSO) every quinquennial (5 yearly) .The quinquennial  survey of  NSSO supplied data only upto 2011-12.As per NSSO study the unemployment rate which was nearly 6.6% in 2004-05 declined to 5.6% in 2011-12 and further to 4.9% In 2013-14. In due course it was replaced by the Periodic  Labour Force Survey (PLFS) commenced in 2017-18 on an annual basis.PLFS Survey was conducted by National Statistical Office (NSO )   on the basis of the recommendations of Amitabh Kundu committee report. Survey data were collected on many variables including level of unemployment, types of employment and their respective shares,wages earned from different types of jobs, number of hours worked etc.

One measurement used to track employment is worker participation ratio or the number of persons employed per hundred population. The worker- population ratio in 2015-16 was 47.8% meaning that nearly 48% aged 15 years and above were employed as workers.  Our worker population ratio is very low compared to many developed countries. On the other hand our worker population ratio is higher 50,4% in rural sector compared to 41.4% in urban area. Female participation rate is also very low due to low socio economic status of women. In 2015-16 primary sector provided 47% employment accounting for 59% in rural and 8% in urban sector.Secondary sector provided 22%  20% in rural and 29% in urban and service sector provided 31% employment 21% in rural and 63% in urban India. It follows that while primary sector provides 59% employment in rural sector tertiary sector provides 63% urban jobs. 

As per the study of Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) India's labour force participation rate LFPR has fallen from already low 47% in 2016 to just 40% as of December 2021 as against the global average of 60% .As on December 2021 while the male LFPR was 67.4% female LFPR was as low as 9.4% . However World Bank data showed India's female LFPR  stood around 25 % as against world average of 47% . CMIE estimated country's unemployment rate in July 2022 at 6.80 percent as against June 7.8 percent in June 2022.However,according to CMIE the employment rate among youth in India in 2016-17 was 20.9% which fell to 17.9% in 2017-18, to 14.7% in 2019-20. In fact impacted by the pandemic and recessionary conditions India's youth employment rate further dipped to 10.9% in 2020-21 and to 10.4% in 2021-22. 

All India Quarterly Establishment based Employment Survey (AQEES) of Labour Bureau provides quarterly estimates of e employment and related variables of establishments in organized and unorganized segments of 9 sectors namely manufacturing, construction, trade ,transport, education, health,accommodation and restaurant,information technology/ b p o and financial services. According to the fourth round survey (January- March 2022) of AQEES out of 1.8 crore workers employed in 5.31 lakh establishments  manufacturing accounted for 38,5%'followed by education 21.7% ,IT/BPO sector with 12% and health sector 10.6%.Almost 80% of the establishment engaged 10 to 99 workers. About 12% of the establishment reported fewer than 10 workers while only 1.4% ofd establishment surveyed reported 500 or more workers mostly in health sector, IT/BPO sectors. Participation of women workers witnessed a marginal increase from 31.6% in third quarter to 31.8% in fourth quarter. As per AQEES  study employment generation in nine non farm sectors declined in quarter 4 compared to quarter 3 possibly due to the impact of omicron and dip in additional job creation and the total decline of employment between these two quarters amounted to 40000,wherein manufacturing it was  as high as 140000,education 22204,and construction 8954 .On the contrary IT/BPO sector provided highest number of additional jobs 239062 in the fourth quarter .

As per the above discussion data suggest that even though general employment scenario marginally improved, youth employment opportunities declined drastically especially in 2020-21 and 2021-22.  AQEES quarterly data showed that there is much progress in IT/BPO and health sectors in creating new jobs during January March 2022 compared to the previous quarter,whereas sectors like manufacturing and education showed a decline in the same period. Despite liberal incentives offered to 14 sectors in industry we were yet to capitalise the opportunities arising out of Chinese slow down in manufacturing. With regard to worsening youth unemployment comprehensive strategy to provide adequate education and appropriate skilling in relation to emerging opportunities both domestic and global level are required.Our demographic dividend, democracy especially at the local body level , resources ,institutions of learning and skill development and developing technologies including information technology, artificial intelligence,internet of things ,nano technology,bio technology,space and defence technologies etc along with infrastructure development if optimally designed  planned and implemented both economic and employment growth can be achieved. Otherwise discontentments and frustrations among youth may increase resulting in agitations like those against Agni path and  Railways.