INDIA @ 75 : CHALLENGES AHEAD

 After nearly two centuries of foreign occupation and colonisation India attained independence in 1947 with much struggle agitation and hardship despite the deep wound of partition of the country to India and Pakistan.Our greatest father of the nation's ambition has been to wipe" every tear from every eye". Following independence we adopted a mixed economy wherein both private sector and public sector operate under the general guidance of  economic planning. Adverse impact of colonisation and partition destroyed traditional industries and native handicrafts and we remained as an agrarian economy with vast unutilised human and natural resources. Immediately after the adoption of our constitution in 1950 ,the Planning Commission came into existence chaired by first Prime Minister Nehru.Since second five year plan Professor P C Mahalanobis made marked  contributions towards Indian planning, The main objectives of our plans were- to increase production to maximum possible extent so as to achieve higher level of national and percapita income,to achieve full employment, to reduce inequalities of income and wealth and to set up a socialist patterns of society based on equality,justice and absence of exploitation. Important aspect of Nehru Mahalnobis strategy was that public sector was at commanding heights of the economy with the emphasis on basic and heavy industries to achieve self sustained growth through public investment in the basic and heavy sectors. The strategy required  all our efforts for the maximum capacity utilisation in existing industries and for the development of additional production in  capital light or small scale sector of industries. The private sector were essentially seen to be complimentary to the rapidly growing public sector.However heavy industries strategy though hailed during second and third five year plans later attracted much criticism when the planners found that increase in national income was not accompanied by reduction in poverty in the country, the objective of planning for 4th five year plan the basic goal was " a rapid increase in the standard of living of the people." The slogans of 1970s were "Garibi hatao "(removal of poverty) and " growth with Justice ".while the first plan (1951-56) targeted moderate growth of 2.1% it really achieved 3.6% of actual growth but second plan (1956-61) with focus on heavy industries slightly declined to achieve the target of 4.5% by achieving 4.27%.Third plan (1961-66) though aimed at self reliant economy was largely a failure with actually achieving 2.8% growth against the target of 5.6% After 3 years of annual plans Fourth five year plan also fall short of target from 5.7% to 3.3%.However from fifth plan onwards growth rate surpassed 5%  during the rolling, seventh,  eighth,nineth, tenth ,eleventh and Twelfth plans ranging between 5.5 to 8% growth. 

  Major strategic and policy changes took place since July 1991 when economic reforms were introduced as per the instructions of IMF and world Bank to tide over the balance of Payments crisis. Objectives of reforms were to increase the efficiency and international competitiveness of industrial production, to boost foreign investment and technology, to improve the performance of public sector and to reform and modernise the financial sector so as to serve more efficiently the needs of the economy.Broad directions of reforms were 1.Drastic reductions in Government control.2.Increasing the role of private sector by unleashing the 'animal spirit ' of enterprise. 3.To reduce public sector deficit to about 4% of GDP. 4.Opening up of the economy to trade and foreign investment integrating with the global economy. It may be noted here that successive governments followed reform measures in different sectors  more vigorously with the possible exception of  PLI scheme under Atmanirbhar Bharat Yogana.

On January 1st 2015 Government of India constituted new institution namely NITI Aayog replacing the existing Planning Commission instituted in 1950 so as to evolve a shared vision of national development priorities, sectors and strategies with active involvement of states in the light of national priorities.NITI Aayog aims to  accomplish an administrative paradigm in which Government is an "enabler rather than a "provider of first and last resort "NITI Ayog's  Strategy for India @ 75 aims at accelerating annual economic growth to 9-10%, make the country a $4 trillion economy by 2022-23 and to achieve UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs ).Document has broadly divided into four sectors namely - Drivers, Infrastructure, inclusion and Governance. Investments should be raised from 29% to 36% of GDP by 2022-23.Despite the growth of capital intensive sectors like automobiles and pharmaceuticals though witnessed higher growth they were not able generate reasonable employment.It has been observed that fairly competitive land and labour laws,quality education and appropriate skilling are required to increase  employment opportunities in manufacturing, service, hospitality ICT sectors etc.At the time of independence India's GDP stood at around 2.7 lakh crores which had increased to rupees 147.79 lakh crores in 2021-22 and is the fifth largest economy in the world and projected to become the 3rd largest economy by 2031.As per IMF's data while world output is projected to grow 3.2 % in 2022 and decline to 2.9% in 2023 ,India has a robust growth of  7.4% and 6.4% respectively as against China's growth forecast of 4.6% in 2022 and 5.0% in 2023.

 India's average life expectancy increased  from 40 years to 70.19 years and Infant mortality rate reduced from 150to 27.6 in 2022,maternal mortality declined from 2000 to 103 and the country witnessed corresponding decline in birth rate mortality rate and fertility rate to  17,7 and 22 respectively for 2022.As per 2020 data total literacy achieved was 77.3% in which female literacy rate achieved was  70.3% as against male literacy of 84.7%.Our global ranking in development indicators like Human Development Index was only 131,per capita income 130,life expectancy 133 and  years of schooling 137.According to NITI Ayog's study 25% of our population are poor deprived of basic human facilities including food safe drinking water, sanitation,health care and education. NITI Ayog's multi dimensional poverty index bassed on 12 indicators showed that states like Kerala (0.71%), Goa(3.76%),Sikkim(3.82%),Tamil Nadu(4.89%) and Punjab (5.59%) showed lower rate of poverty  as against poverty ridden states of Bihar(51.91%),Jharkand(42.16%), Uttar Pradesh (37.79%) Madhya Pradesh (36.65%) and both Meghalaya and Assam(32.67%). Unemployment data supplied by CMIE showed that unemployment rate rose to 7.8% in June 2022 with 8% in rural areas and 7.3% of urban unemployment. 

On the contrary studies also indicate that incomes of the middle class and high income group  increased dramatically. Similarly  India is not only an exporter of food grains  but also the largest recipient of foreign remittances from non residents working abroad. Recent UNCTAD report also showed that over 7% of Indians own digital crypto currencies which is the seventh highest in the world.In any case the number of billionaires in India increased from 55 in 2011 to 140 in 2021 with their income as a percentage of GDP accounting for 13.5% and 19.6% respectively and assets worth $246 billion and $596 billion in 2011 and 2021.Inequality is rampant as indicated by top 1% earning 22% of  national income,top  10 % earning 57 % and bottom 50% earning only 13% of GDP. As per Department of Revenue data there were 7690979 individuals who reported income between rupees 10 lakhs and 1crore and 131390 persons with above rupees 1 crores of income for the assessment year 2021-22. As per NSS 73rd round rupees 6.34 crores MSMEs in the country in various economic activities provides employment to 11.10 crore workers. Moreover roaring business in IT and IT enabled services including the emergence of Unicorns and start-ups created more jobs and income.India needs to generate additional 70 lakh jobs every year to absorb addition to work force. India experiences lower female work participation rate of  only 21%  as against 69% in China. Rupee dollar  exchange rate had depreciated by 75 rupees from rupees 4 per dollar in 1947 to rupees 79 per $ in 2022.Petrol price per litre increased from mere 0.27rupee to whopping 105.86 rupees in the same period .However gradually India moved from a capital deficit country to have sufficient cash flows to propel growth buttressed by large number of small and medium and foreign investors .India emerged as a highly digitalised economy linking Aadhar mobile and bank accounts which drastically reduced malpractices in  revenue collections and Direct Beneficiary Transfer schemes.

Unfortunately despite rapid strides in GDP growth  literacy rate,life expectancy and reducton in infant mortality,  mothers mortality,birth rate ,death rate and fertility rate, and development in social and economic infrastructure and Digitalisation -poverty,  unemployment,inequality and lack of inclusiveness and to some extent human rights violations persists in the country. We have to strengthen our liberal democracy with electoral reforms checking the menace of money power, criminalization and defections in politics. In addition  providing quality education especially to women and increasing their work participation rate and empowerment need additional focus.Fortunately digital revolution has drastically reduced malpractices in Direct Beneficiary Transfer in government's social safety net programs. Future digitalisation must be designed for more inclusivity.Beyond economics rule of law matters to wipe "every tear from every eye" especially when above 47 million cases are pending in the courts. Evolving appropriate strategies and plans by policy makers- executive and legislature and a committed judiciary can go a long way in realising our development goals.  🇮🇳 

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