CHANGING GLOBAL POPULATION DYNAMICS

 Historically human beings  transformed themselves from nomadic community to settled life primarily on the river banks and started to cultivate land. Later handicrafts and barter system evolved, and cities  and countries gradually developed. After settled life and cities came into existence population not only spread to different countries and continents but also started to multiply across the globe spanning in decades and centuries. Technically speaking growth of  population depends on birth rate, death rate, fertility rate and migration. While birth rates are measured through the live births of babies born yearly per 1000 people in a population, death rates are measured through yearly deaths per 1000 population. Total fertility rate of a population is the  average number of children that would be born to  females over their  life  time.On the other hand migration both within the country and across countries are determined by both push forces like natural calamities,poverty, unemployment, war, ethnic and other types of conflicts while pull forces are better avenues for income, employment, education, other infrastructure facilities and higher standards of living.  Obviously when birth rates are higher than Death rate population growth increases. Globally from 1750 to 1900 death rate reduced rapidly due  to breakthroughs in food production and health care,  sanitation facilities and water supply. Accordingly Global population continued to increase rapidly from about 2 billion people in 1900  to 8.045 billion in 2023.

Though there is some difference  about the timing due to data constraints  as per U N estimate India is  set to take over as the most populated country from China in mid 2023 with  1428.6 million people where 68% belonged 15-64 age group and 7.% belonged to senior citizens of 65% and above. Historically India's population growth is divided into four phases 1.Stagnant population (1891-1921)2.Steady Growth (1921-1951) 3.Rapid high growth  (1951-1981) and 4 . High growth with definite signs of slowing down (1981-2011).On the other hand China's  projected total population is less than  that of India at 1425.7 million with 69% belonged to the productive group  within the age group of  15-64. With senior citizens accounting for 14%. While India's population is likely to grow in the coming decades as against substantial decline of population in the coming decades in China. Even though  the number of old people is increasing in both China and India the problem is  relatively more acute in China.Hence China require more health infrastructure and geriatric care facilities. Total global population estimated was 8045 million with 65% of productive population and 10%  65+group. While average life expectancy for China is estimated to be 79 Years . India with 72.5 is lagging behind world average  of 73.5 years.As far as Total Fertility Rate (TFR)ĵ is concerned world average is higher at 2.3 followed by India 2.0 and China very low at 1.2.Obviously China is experiencing substantial fall in population growth due to the stringent population control measures adopted by Chinese Government especially the adoption of one child norm since 1980.China is the first country to reach long-term population decline which is not only precariously disastrous to the economy and society but also immediately calls for meticulous planning and concerted and coordinated approach by policy makers. One fourth of India's population is  in the age group of 0-14 years 18% in 10-19 and 20% in 10-24 years of age which broadly indicate th2005-06to 2055-56e sustainability of our demographic dividend Our demographic dividend is likely to manifest in  robust working age population in productive activities undergoing rapid transformation from agro based to industrial and service sectors .India's advantage of large working population in relation to the developed economies which are struggling with ageing work force can be effectively utilized with proper skilling, education and appropriate training. 

 India and China accounted for more than one third of global population USA occupied the  third position with 339.5 million people, followed by 4th Indonesia 276.9 million, 5.Pakistan 239.2 million, 6 African country.Nigeria 222.3 million,7, South American large country Brazil 216.1million,8.Bangladesh 172.4 million  followed  by 9. Russia with 144.6 million people and 10th  most populous country from North American continent  Mexico with 128.2 million. However  projections  made by demographers indicated that by 2050 more than half of the projected increase in world population will witness drastic change by concentrating in  8 countries namely Democratic Republic of Congo,Egypt, Ethiopia,India, Nigeria, Pakistan and Tanzania.Infact analysts project that Nigeria with 377 million would overtake the USA  as the third largest populated country in the world by 2050,which is a major departure from the existing share of  ten countries contribution towards global population discussed earlier. By 2100 India's dependent ratio will be moderate and rapid increase  in population will occur in both Africa and South Asia region particularly in Nigeria and Pakistan. 

According to UN estimate India's population is to grow from current 1.4 billion to 1.67 billion in 2050,peaking to 1.7 billion and stabilizing  at 1.53 billion in 2100.India attained demographic dividend status with large share of young and productve population in the year 2005-06 and it is expected to continue till 2055-56.Some people-believe that that we are still in the population explosion stage which is very much contrary to facts.  In fact  India's population growth has declined from 2.23 in 1955  ,to 1.73in 2005,0.96 in 2020and0.86 in 2023.Similarly total fertility rate of 2.0 per woman is lower than 2.1 % that demonstrates replacement level of population sufficient to stabilise population. It may be noted here that only states like Bihar,Uttar Pradesh,Jharkand, Manipur and Meghalaya have fertility rates above the replacement level and Bihar recorded  the  highest fertility level of 3% per women which is highest in the country. Obviously these states will continue to witness incerase population, Whereas majority of  other states including those who  reported lowest fertility rate  Like Jammu and Kashmir and Lakshadweep 1.4% followed by.1.6 in West Bengal,1.8 in Kerala and 1.9 in Assam etc will  be  instrumental not only to stabilise population growth but also eventually reduce it. Available evidence also indicate that migration of semi skilled and skilled workers resumed after Covid19 from states like Bihar UP and West Bengal towards Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu etc vigorously.Most significantly India has been ranked first by the World Bank continuously for several years due to recieving largest amount of foreign remittances from Indian nationals working abroad even before attaining the present status of most populated country of the world. India's demographic dividend is estimated to  last from 2005-06 to 2055-56.In any  case India's population will soon stagnate in the coming days and expected to fall  by 2060.

India, the most populous country with over 142 billion people accounting for 17.6% of the global population and just 2.4% of the land area is significantly endowed with human capital and rich natural resources.One third of India's population is young, investment in education skill development and access to health care and family planning assumes utmost significance.Massive investment in health care, education, employment and upskiling and reskilling can rejuvenate the economy.Rigorous investment in startups,unicorns, digital revolution, space defence and semiconductor technologies,streamlining and rationalising of PLI schemes, Artificial intelligence, service exports, infrastructure and logistics etc would eventually transform India into a high income country provided the demographic dividend is properly and effectively utilised.