CHANGING PATTERN OF AGEING IN INDIA

 Economists do discuss about optimum population where the composition of existing population is sufficient enough to utilise available resources optimally.But deciding the optimum level is a very complicated in the context of variations in levels of technology, skills,health and education available resources and infrastructure and most importantly the size and composition of population.At present many of the developed countries are experiencing the problems associated with ageing of population with declining fertility rate and increasing longevity and accelerating the need for geriatric health care.Ageing of population is necessarily both irreversible and inevitable reality caused by factors like advancements in health and medical care longevity and declining fertility rates.In fact declining fertility, reduction in mortality and increasing survival at older ages are collectively responsible for the ageing of population.Generally the population of older persons with age of 60 years and above are growing across the globe faster than the growth of total or general population.

As per UNFPA's (United Nations Fund for Population Activities)  study "India Ageing Report 2023" the proportion of of elderly people in Asia is expected to rise from 13.7% to 35.7% during the period 2022 to 2050.In Japan the proportion of aged is expected to increase to 43.7 % by 2050 whereas the corresponding share for Republic of Korea  is estimated to be.4% and China 38.8%,India 20% Bangladesh 21.3%, Bhutan 23.8%, Srilanka 27% and Maldives 34.1% during the same period of 2022-2050 . The report indicated that the pace of ageing is moderate in India with the proportion of aged projected to increase 20% in 2050 and further to 36.1% in 2100. Most states in the Southern region and few  northern states like Himachal Pradesh and Punjab reported a higher share of the elderly people than the national average of 2021which is projected to grow further. According to another study in the past six decades the percentage of people aged 60 and above witnessed highest growth from 5.1 percent 16.5% iñ Kerala state On the other hand due to high fertility rates in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar population growth is very high and they experience a lagging in demographic transition.In fact these states are contributing largely towards the "Demographic Dividend" (existence of major share of people in the productive age group of 15-59),  and the country is currently show casing of 3Ds namely Democracy, Demographic Dividend and Demand .The study  however projected that the population of people aged 80 and above will grow at a rate of around 279% between 2022 and 2050 with striking predominance of widowed and highly dependent very old women.Data showed that women on average had a higher life expectancy at the age of  60-80 when compared with their male counterparts with variations across states and Union territories. While Himachal Pradesh and Kerala women have highest life expectancy of 23 and 22 years respectively during 2020 and 2050.Life expectancy of women at 60 is higher than twenty years in states like Rajasthan, Haryana, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Kerala, Himachal Pradesh and UT of Jammu and Kashmir.There are visible differential changes in the  sex ratios of general and aged population. While the sex ratio(number of females per thousand males) of general population has been stagnating between 2011and 2021 the sex ratio of aged people increased dramatically in most of the regions in the country, 

Analysis of elderly population as a proportion of state wise population in 2001 and estimated for 2021 showed that Kerala ranked the top with 10.5 for 2001 and 16.5 in 2021.Tamil Nadu  followed second position with 8.8 and 13.6 respectively. Himachal Pradesh  recorded growth of 9.0 in 2001 and 13.11 in 2021,Punjab followed with 9.0 and 12.6,Andhra Pradesh 7.7 and 12.4,Odisha 8.3 and 11.8 respectively for the years 2001 and 2021.Maharashtra witnessed growth of aged from 8.7 in 2001 to 11.7 in 2021,compared to  7.7 and 11.5 in Karnataka 7.1 and 11.3 respectively in West Bengal and 7.7 and 10.6 respectively in Uttarakhand and  comparatively less proportion of 6.9 in 2001 and 9.8 in  2021 in Gujarat etc were observed. In tune with the growth of elderly people in total population the old age dependency ratio for senior citizens per 100 persons in the age group of 15-59 ratio has increased from 10.9% in 1961 to 14.2 in 2011 and further projected to 15.7 in 2021  and  20.11 in 2031 respectively. Even though  the proportion of aged in India for the year 2050 is projected to be 20% available estimates showed that currently there are 149 million people aged 60 and above in 2022 (august ) comprising around 10.5% of our population. Accordingly except Gujarat and Uttarakhand, the southern states especially Kerala and  Tamil Nadu, in the North Himachal, Punjab ,Odisha and West Bengal constitute a lion's share of elderly people in India. Among the elderly  physically mobile females constitute 90.5% in urban areas compared to 91.4%  in rural areas.

Official Data for the year 2019 about crime rates against senior citizens  showed that the National Capital Territory of Delhi account for 93.8%, followed by Gujarat 85.4,Chandigarh 74.5 and Madhya Pradesh 73.2%, as against the lowest crime rate of 0.1 % in both Assam and Jammu and Kashmir. A total of 29772 cases of murder against senior citizens were registered during 2021 indicating a marginal increase from 29193 cases in 2020. Similarly a total of 26110 cases were registered for committing crimes against senior citizens indicating an increase of 5.3% over the year 2020.while states like Delhi and Gujarat reported maximum crimes against elderly as against minimum in Assam and Jammu and Kashmir, Southern states like Kerala (16.3%), Karnataka(20.2%)Goa (24.5%) reported moderate crimes against aged people. While Tamil Nadu (33.4%) and Maharashtra (55.5%) reported relatively more crimes it was very negligible in states like Jharkand, Uttarakhand, Meghalaya, Uttar Pradesh,  West Bengal,Bihar, Odisha, Arunachal,Sikkim and Manipur as per 2019 data.Robbery, Burglary and fraud were the most frequent crimes committed against senior citizens. Some were  physically abused or defrauded of personal possessions by even care takers or relatives. Sometimes loss of prestige due to retirement, psychological problems, boredom, feeling of insecurity, alcohol related crimes and family violence may induce elderly people themselves to engage in  violence. Neglect of family members particularly own children lead to more traumas to the elderly. Elderly parents were neglected and treated indifferently by  both rich and poor households.They were shifted to old age homes and pilgrim centers without their knowledge or consent. Life during nights became more traumatic especially when children are addicted to drugs or alcohol. On the other hand as per information gathered about a very affluent family of 6 with 4 children well placed in Europe - they were regularly taking  their parents abroad in order to look after their kids as baby sitter. Once grand children grew  parents were flown back to native home.Both parents stayed back in the big house in native village. After few years father suffered from a  heart attack and shifted to the city hospital. it is said that when all the children came father was already dead but his body was deliberately kept in the  ventilator till children's property partition negotiations were completed. After the completion of father's funeral ceremonies when they left home.mother was admitted in an old age care home. She was very much feeling loneliness and tempted to live with grand children and pleading for  that but in vain. Gradually she was affected by alzhiemers and eventually she expired without seeing any of  her kith and kind Unfortunately no one turned up and when expired her own emigrant children arranged everything through event management firm and they were watching mothers funeral live in their host country .

In short the dimensions and magnitude of problems associated with  ageing of population are bound to increase especially that of very old women,  since their longevity is higher than men in states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh Himachal Pradesh and Punjab etc. Ageing of population requires appropriate policy intervention to maintain sustainable economic growth, eradication of poverty and reduce inequalities. Inorder to mitigate the ill effects ageing population appropriate social and economic policies need to be launched. While a good number of policies and projects are being implemented for the welfare of the aged people by both Central Government and state Government's the issue of proper coordination is important. lack of fiscal space for elders welfare can also be tack through intervention of Non Governmental organizations and Non resident  Indians(NR!s).