CHANGING PATTERN OF REMITTANCES AND EMIGRATION FROM INDIA

GLOBAL SCENARIO 

According to the the data supplied by the Ministry of External Affairs in November 2024 there were 35.4 million Indian diaspora living abroad comprising of persons of Indian Origin ( PIOs) Non Resident Indians (NRIs) and Overseas Citizens of India (OCI). As per   RBI's recent study - India's stock of international migrants tripled from 6.6 million in 1990 to 18.5 million in 2024.with corresponding share among global migrants rising from 4.3% to over 6% in the same period. In recent years the number of Indian students seeking higher education in global universities surged rapidly across many countries and continents. Available data regarding student emigration for January 2024 showed that out of 13.4 lakh Indian students Canada continued to remain the most preferred  destination for Indian students pursuing higher education abroad at (32% ) followed by USA(25.3%).UK(13.9%) andAustralia(9.2%). A good number of Indian students have been  migrating to relatively less expensive universities in  Eastern Europe, Pacific islands and China.  Infact during Russia Ukraine war lot of Indian students were evacuated to India. Indian emigrants estimated in the sixth round of..India's workers remittances more than doubled from US $ 55.6 billion in 2010-11   to $ 118.7 in 2023-24  equivalent amount to finance half of merchandise trade deficit and remaining as a significant external shock absorber. Moreover India's remittances recieved were higher than Foreign Direct Investment Inflows to India. Out of  total global remittances of$905 billion in 2024 India continued to maintain its top position since 2008 and increased its share of global remittances from 11% in in2001 to about 14% in 2024 and projected to increase to around %160 billion 2029.Other major remittances recipient countries are  Mexico, China, Philippines, France, Pakistan Bangladesh etc.Since 2000 India's remittances reciept as a percentage of GDP hovered around 3% of GDP as against below 0.3% in China.It is significant to observe that due to digitalisation and developments in fintech sector the average cost of sending money to India has substantially reduced. 

RECENT  TRENDS 

 RBI study indicated  that relative share of  advanced countries in India's inward remittances has increased surpassing the share of Gulf countries, which broadly shows a shift in migration patterns to more skilled  and  qualified Indian  diaspora.  State wise distribution inward remittances showed that while Kerala traditionally topped in the share with 19.0% followed by Maharashtra 16.7% in 2016-17   By 2020- 21 Maharashtra emerged as major recipient with 35.2 followed by Kerala only 10.2% .However the gap reduced with Maharashtra 20.5% and Kerala 19.7 % in 2023-24. Tamil Nadu has consistently increased it's share from 8.0 in 2016-17  to  9.7 in 2020-21 and 10.4 in 2023-24. Karnataka  on the other hand witnessed a decline in share of remittances from 15.0  to 5.2 and 7.7 respectively in the same period . In 2023-24 Andhra Pradesh share of remittances were 4.4 followed by Delhi NCT 4.3,Punjab 4.2 ,Gujarat 3.9,Uttar Pradesh 3.0, Haryana 2.9,West Bengal 2.3,Rajasthan 1.5,Bihar 1.3 and Uttarakhand  1.1.Data regarding the number of  people who have undergone emigration clearance for  blue collar  jobs showed that blue collar workers emigrating from southern states declined. For instance for Kerala numbers dropped from 82000  in 2014-16 to6000 in2021-24,for Tamil Nadu it declined from1.3 lakh to78000,Telengana 69000 to 35000 ,Andhra Pradesh from 87000 to 55000 and for Punjab it reduced from 94000 to39000.Taking into account global factors and  demographic patterns within the states it can be safely inferred that while Southern state will continue to dominate in white collar jobs especially in advanced economies states like Uttar Pradesh,Bihar and Bengal can tap largely demand for blue collar jobs in the global job market. 

IMPLICATIONS 

The  changing pattern of  Overseas migration from  India  and  resultant remittances flows to the country is well documented by the recent RBI study . It observed a gradual shift in the major source of remittances  from the Gulf Countries to the Advanced economies of  USA, UK, Singapore, Canada and Australia which together accounted for more than half of inward remittances to India during 2023-24 period. US  share in remittances remained highest with 27.7 per cent in 2023-24  from 23.4% in 2020-21.In US labour force the percentage rise in foreign born workers were at 6.3% in 2022 from just 0.7 per cent in the pre pandemic year of  2019. Interestingly 78 per cent of Indian  emigrants in the US are employed in  high earning  sectors including management  business, science  technology arts etc.From UK also the share of inward remittances increased from 6.8 per cent in 2020-21 to 10.8 % in 2023-24.  Yearly emigration from India to UK tripled from 76000 as on end of 2020 to 250000 at the end of 2023 .Increase in the share of remittances from other advanced economies were Singapore (6.6%),Canada (3.8%),and  Australia  (2.3%) in 2023-24. Among Gulf cooperation countries the share of  remittances from UAE dropped from 26.9% 2016-17 to 19.2% in 2023-24. GCC countries of UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain  together  contributed  38 percent of total global remittances into India .While in countries like USA Indian migrants are mainly employed in white collar jobs in contrast to large number migrants in Gulf countries are employed in blue collar jobs .The difference between education skills and demographics between different states and regions in India suggests possibilities for more dynamic changes in emigration and remittance inflows. While in Southern states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Telengana the emigration of skilled and qualified people(white collar Jobs)are likely to increase further. States like Uttar Pradesh,Bihar and West Bengal due to their demographic advantage and relatively lesser skill level are  likely to acquire more  blue collar jobs. Consequentlly it will be reflected in the level of remittances made by them as well. The  welfare of the surging number of Indian students across countries and continents also needs to be addressed seriously especially in the context of geopolitical vulnerability and challenges. In this context Kerala State's initiative to launch interactive portal to address student migration challenges and to provide support networks for students in distress through diaspora connections and NoRKA help desks can be appreciated. 

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