DELIMITATION DILEMMA

 DELEMITATION 

The process of fixing boundaries or limits to territorial constituencies  plays an integral  part in the strength and vibrancy of the democracy by virtue of maintaining equal representation and preserving the mandate namely one person one vote.As the composition and distribution of population gradually changed country have implemented delimitation of  Loksabha seats successfully based on Delemitation  Commission recommendation as per decennial censuses population of  1951,1961, and 1971.Accordingly the number of seats in Loksabha increased from 494 in 1961,522 and 543 In 1971, afterwards due to further complications 543 has been  retained and continued till date. The  average number of people per set in Loksabha also  iincreased from 7.3 lakhs in 1951,8.4 lakhs in 1961 and 10.1 lakh in 1971.On the otherhand total number of State Assembly seats increased from 3102 in 1951 to 3563 in 1961 and 3997 in 1971 census. The original constitutional provision for periodical revision of seats based on decenial populatiom censuses both for Loksabha and state assemblies were  abruptly stopped in 1976, because of feared regional imbalances in fertility,growth and distribution of population across different states. Hence Indira Gandhi Government decided to stop delimitation exercise for 30 years. Again in 2001 then  NDA Government because of similar conditions also did decide to retain the existing number of seats but adjusted the borders of constituentcies along with reserved seats for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled tribes based on 2001 census. The second stoppage of delimitation is expected to be lifted and new delimitation process is scheduled to be completed once the next national census is conducted by 2026.

STATEWISE DISTRIBUTION OF SEATS

As mentioned above the main problem associated with delimitation continues to be India's large and  mounting regional disparity in  population growth.In 1971 one Loksabha MP represented 10 lakh people on an average. India's average population per Member of Parliament is strikingly higher than many countries including USA (7.4 lakhs), and In UK about 1.2 lakhs.Since the number of seats in the Loksabha based on 1971 census was 54.8 crores and the Loksabha seats were fixed at 543 it was frozen by the Government particularly due to population explosion occurred with states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madya Pradesh and Rajasthan with high population growth in contrast to states like Kerala, Tamil  Nadu  Karnataka and Andra Pradesh etc with lesser population growth. As the 2021 census was postponed due to Covid19 condition the next census is scheduled to be conducted in 2026 and the number of seats delimitation will be done based on that census.Studies are envisaging different scenarios.Based on HomeMinister's statement that existing numbers of Loksabha seats in different states will be retained. However based on the 2026 projected population the total number of Loksabha seats is projected to increase to 848.While in states like Kerala, Himachal Pradesh and North Eastern states excluding Assam it will remain stagnant with nil growth or no change, states like Uttar Pradesh get an increase of 63 seats from existing 80 to 143.,Bihar make 39 seats gain from 40 to79,Rajasthan doubled it from 25 to 50 seats.Tamil Nadu makes 10 seats increase from 39 to 49.Both Andhra Pradesh and Telengana taken together increase its total seats by 12 from 42 to54..Karnataka is projected to make 13 seats gain from from 28 to 41.Punjab is expected to increase it's Loksabha seats by 5 from 13 to 18.As per these projections  Uttar Pradesh, Bihar Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have got very distinct advantage, Whereas generally Southern states, smaller states in the North like Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and North Eastern states will be worst affected .It may be  noted here that the constitution has capped the total number of Loksabha and Rajya Sabha seats to a maximum of 550  and 250 respectively. However  Increase in the number of seats is possible through an amendment in the constitution 

POSSIBLE WAY OUT

Freezing the  number of seats as originally done based on 1971 census was done  to achieve the sole objective of incentiviising population control measures throughout the country.On the contrary a close observation of the projected delimitation exercise based on forthcoming census indicate that not only the Southern States share of seats will decline  from 24 % to 19% but also it is likely to impact the basic  federal structure of  our country in terms of development divide, demographic divide and devolution divide.Those states which vigorously adopted family planning measures and brought down their fertility levels and  population growth particularly  Tamil Nadu and Kerala face the adverse impact due to. losing their existing proportional representation despite achievements in population control and achievements in their health ,education and other social indicators. The  regional development in India has been impacted by the demographic divide. For instance Southern States despite having only 18% of India's population contribute 35% of country's GDP. Northern  states which did not give priority to population control are likely to gain more not only due to delimitation but also from Finance  Commission awards where both population and backwardness are considered for devolution . The he expiry of constitutional freeze on number of parliamentary seats is around the  corner,In any case the solution for delimitation has to materialise at the earliest. Accordingly there will be a potential power shift towards north from South. Researchers observe that in countries like USA where the number of seats in the House of Representatives has been capped since 1913 despite several fold increase in population in that country which can be effectively emulated in prevailing Indian conditions as well.  By all means the best possible solution under the prevailing development scenario is to capp delimitation for another twenty five years or so  in India at the  existing conditions. On the contrary evolving an appropriate delimitation formula with equal weightage for population and development is extremely difficult because of the dilemma that different stakeholders including  political parties both regional and national may not able to reach a feasible delimitation strategy.