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DYNAMIC CHANGES IN REMITTANCE INFLOWS TO INDIA: IMPLICATIONS OF RBI STUDY

INWARD REMITTANCES  Inflow of remittances or personal income transfers  associated with migration is considered to be the most important safety valve available to many  economies across the  world. Inward remittances made by Indian diaspora abroad has been a major source of  foreign exchange earnings to strengthen our balance of Payments position, foriegn exchange reserves and external sector.  In recent  years particularly inward remittances exceeded  more than FDI flows to thecountry.As per the recent Remittances Survey conducted by RBI team for the period 2023-24 it  indicated a major breakthrough that the share of India's Inward remittances from advanced economies has risen surpassing that of traditional Gulf cooperation countries (GCC).That is pointing towards a  new shift in emigration patterns with more skilled and qualified Indian emigrants incresingly searching for employment in advanced economies. State wise distribution of...

HOW FAR FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS (F T A s ) ARE FREE ?

 FTAs FreecTrade Agreements (FTAs)  are reached between two or more countries in order to eliminate Trade barriers both tariff and non tariff barriers to make Trade and business smooth across  national borders. FTA s  between countries can cover Trade in goods, trade in services, investment and intellectual property Rights. FTAs can be either bilateral or multilateral depending on whether two or more countries agreed to the Trade Agreement. At the same time each member can retain its own trade and tariff restrictions and commercial policies With non member countries as per their discretion and benefit.  FTAs AND INDIA  India has signed 13 regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) in addition to bilateral Trade Agreements or FTAs with various groups,individual countries namely Japan, South Korea,UAE and United Kingdom  UK. Indo-Japan comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) signed in 2011 resulted in positive, negative and mixed impacts on both trade ...

APPRECIATION OF ASIAN CURRENCIES : IS IT ASIAN CRISIS IN REVERSE ?

 Global currency market  witnessed voltatility in recent days due to first time sharp surge in the value of Asian currencies putting severe pressure on US dollar. The  Taiwan dollar performed particularly  well against US dollar fuelling speculation that the appreciation may ultimately  even lead to evolving a regional strategy in order  to gain trade concessions from the USA. Apart from Taiwan dollar the Chinese yuan,Malaysian Ringitt,Japanese Yen,Australian dollar  all have strengthened, leading to a major breakthrough through shifts  in  both  capital flows and investor preference. The rise in currencies recorded for the last one month has indicated that Chinese  currency appreciated 1.25%,Japan 3.24,Korea 4.94, Taiwan 8.24,India 1.63,Thailand 5.6,Indonesia 1.68,Philippines 3.66,Singapore 4.55,and Vietnam -0.65.Taiwan has been experiencing piling up of US dollar through its trade surplus primarily through export of  semicond...

WORLD ECONOMY AT CRITICAL JUNCTURE AND POLICY SHIFTS

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK  According to IMF's World Economic Outlook April 2025 the earlier landscape of Global Economy has changed accordingly Governments around the world changed policy priorities and uncertainties reached a new peaks. Escalating  trade tensions and financial markets adjustments are swiftly changing policy uncertainties that has impacted Governments to reorder policy priorities. Measures of USA and countermeasure adopted  by its trading  partners have been ending up In a near fiasco.Swift escalation of trade tensions and  high levels of policy uncertainty are expected to impact global economic activity. Hence IMF has projected to drop global growth to 2.8% in 2025 from the earlier forecast of 3.0% for both years 2025 and 2026.Growth forecast for advanced economies is projected to be 1.4 in 2025and 1.5 in 2026 .However projections for USA slightly better with 1.8 for 2025 and 1.7 for 2026 as against only 0.8 and  1.2 for Euro area respectivel...

TARIFF WARS ,PROTECTIONISM AND GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS.

 GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN  Global supply chain refers to a network of interconnected processes,people, and technology that moves products and services across various countries,firms and organizations.It involves sourcing raw materials, manufacturing, distribution and delivering goods to the ultimate customers.In other words key aspects of global supply chains include cross border operations, sourcing raw materials, manufacturing, distribution, interconnectedness, reliance on technology, data,inventory and logistics management.Global supply chains performed  relatively  efficiently during the peak peak of globalisation from 1980s to 2010s.Since then supply chains has been facing periodial disruptions during the Covid19 period which started from China in late 2019 that developed into a global health emergency which in turn resulted in unimaginable levels of confusion an chaos in supply chains. Commencement of Russia Ukraine war in 2022 further added to supply chain disrupti...

DELIMITATION DILEMMA

 DELEMITATION  The process of fixing boundaries or limits to territorial constituencies  plays an integral  part in the strength and vibrancy of the democracy by virtue of maintaining equal representation and preserving the mandate namely one person one vote.As the composition and distribution of population gradually changed country have implemented delimitation of  Loksabha seats successfully based on Delemitation  Commission recommendation as per decennial censuses population of  1951,1961, and 1971.Accordingly the number of seats in Loksabha increased from 494 in 1961,522 and 543 In 1971, afterwards due to further complications 543 has been  retained and continued till date. The  average number of people per set in Loksabha also  iincreased from 7.3 lakhs in 1951,8.4 lakhs in 1961 and 10.1 lakh in 1971.On the otherhand total number of State Assembly seats increased from 3102 in 1951 to 3563 in 1961 and 3997 in 1971 census. The origina...

IMF'S EVALUATION OF INDIAN ECONOMY AND POLICY PRESCRIPTIONS

MAJOR OBSERVATIONS OF IMF  After concluding Article 1v  consultation with India Executive Board  of  IMF observed that despite recent moderation in GDP growth India remained robust with 6 percent yearly growth during the first half of 2024-25.Real GDP is expected to grow at 6.5%  both in  2024-25 and 2025-26 largely due to  macro economic and financial stability coupled with growth in private consumption. Moeover strength of financial sector health is  strenghened  to incorporate balance sheets,strong foundation in public infrastructure etc which strengthened the growth process. Inflation on the otherhand broadly declined within the tolerance band of 2-6 despite food price fluctuations led voltatility. The financial sector also remained resilient with drastic decline in non performing loans showing multi year low Level .While fiscal consolidation has started, the current account deficit is expected to remain sustainable and remain moderate at...