GLOBAL POPULATION DYNAMICS

 The study  of human resources or human population are very vital in assessing the size, structure and nature of population.Human beings are both the instruments and end of production.Hence it is necessary to understand the quantity and quality of population not only at a particular time but also the rate at which they are growing and  their composition and distribution wihin and  across countries and  continents. Generally population size and distribution is determined by birth rate , death rate and migration. Theory of demographic transition divides growth of population into thre stages where first stage is characterized by both high birth and high death rates resulting in low population growth which is followed by high birth rate and low death rate due to better health facilities resulting in high population growth and in the third stage of demographic transition both birth rate and death rates are low and population growth tends to stabilise.As far as India is concerned while most of the northern states are in the second stage in contrast some of the southern states are in the process of stabilising population growth.

 Distribution,density and growth of population signify the advancement and development of each geographical area. Infact the global  population have huge impact on world economic growth and climate change.According to UN study 90% of the global population lives in about 10% of earth's land area .Current global population is estimated to be 7.96 billion which is expected to cross 8 billion in November 2022.It has been estimated that world population reached 1 billion in 1800,the second billion was achieved only after 130 years  in 1930,the third billion in 1960,fourth billion after15 years in 1974,fifth billion in 1987.The latest projections made by United Nations indicate that global population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030,9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100.Whille 46 least developed countries are among the world's fastest population growing countries, more than half of the projected increase in global population upto 2050 will be in 8 countries namely Congo,Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Phillipines and Tanzania.Globally in 2022 there are  50.3% men for 49.7% women.Globally life expectancy reached 72.8 years in 2019 with female and male life expectancies at 73.8 and 68.4 respectively.Because of female advantage in life expectancy in almost all population women comprised 55.7% of persons aged 65 years and above in 2022.Since mortality dropped population growth continues so long as fertility is at high rates . However average fertility has fallen from 5 births per woman in 1950 to 2.3births in 2021.It has been observed that where fertility levels remain high countries should meet the needs of growing numbers of children and young people.Countries where a decline in fertility offers opportunity for demographic dividend need to invest in human capital by ensuring quality education and health care and opportunities for productive employment. Countries with ageing population should adopt policies and programmes that support the aged and geriatric care.

Global population is growing at a reduced rate wherein some countries and regions continue to experience population growth while others witnessed stabilisation or decrease in population growth.Continent wise Asia accounted for about 61% global population followed by Africa 17% , Europe 9.7% ,Latin America 8.5% and North America 4.8%.In Asia while Eastern and South Eastern Asia account for 2.3 billion or 29% of global population, Central and Southern Asia with 2.1 billion account for 26% of global population,China with 1.426 billion and India with 1.412 billion together account for 36 percent of world population.Some studies have already indicated that the earth's carrying capacity is less than 8 billion people. It may be noted here that India with just 2.4 % of the land area is supporting about 18% of the world population and UN study project that by next year 2023 India will be the largest populated country surpassing China.Studies have shown that India's "demographic dividend" or the share of population between 25-64  is projected to peak and start declining by 2052.The share of population aged above 65 years is expected to rise and shift will be recorded first in southern states with nearly 20% of the population of Tamil Nadu and Kerala crossing the age 60 in 2036.In 2036 the southern states will have a relatively higher share of senior citizens with the percent of dependent population (<15 and >65) increasing.  A recent study by  Kerala State Planning Board have estimated that the number of migrant workers from other states to Kerala is set to increase from 31.4 lakhs in 2017-18 to 47.9 lakhs in 2025 and about 60 lakhs in 2030,accounting for roughly one sixth of state's total population. Rising population in large states not only leads to internal migration but also international migration. With the increase in old population dependent population will increase.It is interesting to find that the share of dependent population will be nearly 95% by 2052 in Japan and South Korea.Unfortunately India's geriatric care facilities are negligible due to low share of elderly people recieving pensions and high out of pocket expenditure on health incurred by them.

United Nations long term population projections rests on different methodologies to project future trends in fertility. Projecting of future fertility trends is based on historical and present fertility levels and trends which takes into account past progress made in development of health, education, contraceptive use etc. In the medium scenario United Nations embodies an optimistic vision of development particularly towards gender equality and women empowerment,assuming that individuals will be better in realising their child bearing intentions .Assuming further that such progress continues into the future of gender development so that they will have even more social and economic opportunities and better ability to realize their family goals. Even though the percentage growth of population is decreasing mainly due to women's education, Africa due to low women's education will witness maximum growth in population as against Europe's reduction of 10%.While  8 billion carrying capacity of human population on earth is not advocated by all huge deficit in consumption and ecological deficit exist.Since  "development is the best contraceptive " policy makers should continue to focus on areas like girls 'education women empowerment, use of more contraceptives,eradication of poverty, food security,  skill development, specific health care to different categories and further exploiting the dynamics of available  population structure through appropriate human resources development and management for achieving sustainable development.