2024 AND BEYOND :EXPECTATIONS AND UNCERTAINTIES

As the new year 2024 is dawning we do expect a better world,  along with uncertainties that may crop up at the local, regional,national or  international levels.In a sense global uncertainties are far more severe compared to domestic problems. Already global economy has been in a series of shocks exposing it further to fragility and increasing fragmentation.Global economies continues to recover despite Russian invasion of Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Hamas.The disruptions in food and energy markets have impacted both inflation and energy markets.There was unprecedented tightening of global monetary conditions to combat high inflation in many countries. However economic growth remained slow and uneven with divergencies. IMF's global growth forecast showed a decline from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023 and  2.9 % 2024.Slowdown in advanced economies further pronounced from 2.6% in 2022 to1.5% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024.Evidences suggests that while inflation has receded generally, in many countries it still remained above the targeted level. Similarly eventhough global economy is showing signs of slow down unevenly across countries and sectors,  Emerging markets Economies (EMEs)as a group remained resilient despite volatility. 

Inspite of the global uncertainties India continued to remain as the fastest growing major economy of the world. India recorded strong GDP growth of 7.2%in 2022-23 and likely to grow 6.4% for 2023-24 .As against current GDP of $ 3.4 trillion India's stock market did report market capitalisation of over $ 4 trillion. On the other hand India's banking sector recorded phenomenal resilience due to improved asset quality and decline in the Gross Non Performing Assets (GNPA) of scheduled commercial banks from 3.9% in March 2023 to 3.2% in September 2023.About 40% of reduction in GNPA during 2022-23 were attributed to recoveries and upgradation.Similarly India's current account deficit has remarkably reduced recently  to just 1% of GDP in second quarter of 2023-24. current account balance in Q2 of Fy24 recorded a lower deficit of $8.3 billion against $ 30.9billion in Q2 Fy 23.While annual foreign remittances from Indians abroad is estimated to reach the highest level of $125 billion in 2023,Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is estimated to cross US$100 billion in the financial year 2023-24.India's foreign exchange reserves(FER) recorded the 21 month high of $ 620.4 billion.Another visible change witnessed was the growth of investment in renewable earnergy sector by 83% to $16.5 billion in Fy 2024.

According to the study of Centre for Economics and Business Research (CE B R) India will emerge as the largest economic power by the end of the century with GDP 90% larger than China's and 30% higher than that of USA. In the medium term India will continue to sustain robust growth average about 6 5% from 2020 to 2028 to surpass Japan and Germany and reach  as  the world's third largest economy by 2032.India is also  expected to overtake both China and USA  after 2080 These projections are made based on primarily demographic estimates and projections,country's large and young population, ever-growing middle class, dynamic entrepreneurial sector and increasing global integration.

Global outlook shows a mixed picture where growth has weakened in the medium term,while inflation has come down but employment remained stagnant.Similarly supply chains are vulnerable to distortions in production, logistics and transportation. Like in 2023 devastating climate shocks ranging from extreme heat  wild fires, floods, volcanic  eruptions, melting of polar ice and thining of glaciers,  which can bound to increase further globally. However we do face many challenges and uncertainties in our country. Main challenges include reduction of poverty,unemployment and inequality, achieving better human capital, health conditions, infrastructure and environmental sustainability. We should be open to concieve, develop and measure development indices like- Rule of Law index,Poverty Index,  corruption perception Index,and World Press Index and once such indices are measured and accordingly corrective measures can be adopted. Consequentlly it will promote welfare. Infact such indices taken together would indicate the degree of happiness in any country. Unless and until the corporate world particularly crony capitalists are not adhering to the requirements of social responsibility and Sustainable development goals the future of humanity will continue to be uncertain. Let us hope that the policy makers will give adequate attention to the basic challenges  confronting the humanity and accordingly make concerted efforts with  cooperation of major stakeholders to resolve it, so that atleast 2024 witness a qualitative change in the approach towards sustainable and resilient development.