RESILIENCE AMONG DIVERGENCE.

According International Monetary Fund 's World Economic Outlook released in April Global economy remained remarkably resilient with steady growth and inflation returning to target level which luckily defied both stagflation expectations and global recession,especially in the context of post pandemic supply disruptions, Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent global  energy and food crises as well as  monetary tightening resorted  across countries. It is heartening to note that despite many gloomy predictions and forecasts the world not only avoided a recession but also withstood  banking crises,and financial conditions eased,equity  valuation shot up and capital flows to most of the emerging market economies excluding China and few low income countries increased.In this scenario IMF projected global output growth in both 2024 and 2025 at 3.2%  with  median inflation declining from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.4%  by the  end of 2025 .and most indicators continues to point a soft landing further. Global economy is classified broadly into two by WEO 1.Advanced Economies 2.Emerging Market and Developing economies. Among the 41 advanced economies  US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, UK and Canada are major Advanced economies In addition to Euro Area,Emerging Market and Developing economies comprises of 155 economies from different continents and excluding China and Low income developing countries. Advanced economies   grew 1.6% in 2023 and projected to grow 1.7% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.It may be noted here that there is no respite in US inflation and geopoliticalì tensions despite the most aggressive and coordinated monetary policy tightening. In USA growth is projected as 2.5% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024 and decline to 1.9% in 2025. In Euro area expected to improve it's growth from 0.4% in 2023 to 0.8 % in 2024 and 1.5 % in 2025.Germany which suffered negative growth of -0.3 in 2023 is projected to grow 0.2% in 2024 and 1.3%in 2025. Spain sgrowth for 2023 is 2.5%  and 1.9 and 2.1 projected for 2024 and  2025 respectively.While UK recorded only 0.1% in 2023 and projected 0.5% for 2024 and 1.5% in 2025,Canada achieved 1.1% for 2023 and projected 1.2% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025.

 Emerging market and developing economies recorded 4.3% in 2023 and projected growth forecast showed 4.2% growth for both 2024 and 2025.Emerging and developing Asia showed 5.6% growth in 2023 followed by projected 5.2% in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025.China recorded 5.2% in 2023 with projected to 4.6% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025.According to IMF economists China's domestic demand is suffering because of property crisis brought about. India which had high growth of 7.8% in 2023 is expected to achieve 6.8% in 2024 and 6.5 % in 2025.According to IMF India should focus on investing heavily in education and health care to ensure that it's growing young population is adequately employed.The labour force needs to have right skills, competinwith challenges with Artificial Intelligence, other digital technologies including Fintech and digital assets etc. Russia achieved 3.6% in 2023 and projected to achieve 3.2 in 2024 and 2.4 in  2025.Brazil which grew at 2.9 % in 2023 projected to decline to 2.2 in 2024 and 3.1in 2025.Mexico has done slightly better with 3.2% in 2023 but projected to decline to 2.4% in 2024 and 1.4 in 2025.IMF has estimated world Trade  at market rate of exchange growth at 2. 7 % for all the three years 2023,2024 and 2025.On the other hand world trade values of goods and services growth is 0.3% in 2023 projected to increase 3.3% in 2024 and and 3.0% in 2025. While imports of Advanced economies showed negative-1% growth in 2023 and projected to grow  2.0% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025 the corresponding figures for Emerging markets and developing economies are 2.0%,4.9%and 4.1% respectively, whereas exports growth showed -0.9%,2.5% and 2.9% for advanced economies. and for EMDEs it is-0.1%,2.0% and 2.8% respectively for 2023 and projected for 2024 and 2025.

 Global economy remained highly resilient with stable growth and containing of inflation. Global GDP growth is expected at 3.2% for both 2024 and 2025.Eventhough the projections for Euro area is lowered that of USA has improved due to its inherent strength. India continues to be  the fastest growing economy consistently  for the third consecutive year. China's contribution towards world GDP remains high despite decline in it's domestic demand largely due to the impact of real sector issues which still persists i along with three D issues of chilling Debt,Deflation and Demographics .Among EMDES Russia and Brazil  has also made relatively commendable contributions towards global output growth .Despite resilience global economy is impacted by pressures like rampant inequality,  unemployment,poverty low human capital development and health development. Multilateral cooperation is necessary to mitigate fragmentation and strengthen the resilience of international monetary system with stable and transparent trade and investment policies. Speedy green transition to build climate resilience is advocated. However increasing geopolical tensions climate change democratic deficit and autocratic tendencies in both multilateral institutions and individual countries threatens global growth and welfare .While geopolitical tensions may not escalate beyond a certain level due to the fear of  escalating into nuclear war,consequences of both climate change and democratic deficit may cause irreparable damage to global welfare and development, 

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