INDIA @ 79 :RANDOM THOUGHTS ABOUT OUR DEVELOPMENT EXPERIENCE.

 GDP GROWTH 

India as a democratic  nation and largest populated country of thevglobe ,when we reach the 79th year of independence in  August 2026 we have to examine how far we have  achieved the desired goals in growth, education, employment,external sector and sustainable ecological development .Apprehensions are there that despite favourable GDP growth, employment generation is not sufficient enough to achieve better distribution of income and wealth and to keep pace with increasing workforce and achieve a sectoral mix that can increase both output and employment. According to Anantha Nageswaran Chief Economic Advisor  Indian economy will sustain a growth rate of 6.3%to 6.8% in the medium term driven by favorable monetary policy, tax relief,and strong monsoon.However expectations hinges thatmIn the long-term India can achieve the target of $ 30 trillion economy  by 2047 if it sustain approximately 12% annual growth rate  in  dollar terms. 

 India's GDP growth rate has gradually picked up from the much inferior "Hindu Rate of Growth;"of around 3% during the 60s and 70s to a robust in90s and 6.0-7.1% average in 2000s and 2010s primarily due to economic reforms, liberalisation and service sector led growth. Eventhough economy suffered a sharp decline of -5.8 % in growth because of Covid19 conditions in 2020,GDP growth rate bounced back to 7.0 % in 2022,7.3-7.6% in 2023-24 making India one of the fastest growing economy .  Provisional estimate  for  Fy 2024-25  was 6.5% and for 2025-26 7.6% and  projections for 2026-27  made by RBI for 6.6% which further increased to 6.7%,According to Arvind Panagaria even RBI estimate is conservative for the  year 2026-27 and it can reach 7% and + .He emphasised the need for rapid urbanization for making Indian cities business and employment  friendly ,creating special employment regions and building cities around jobs.In any case GDP growth is  stabilising around 6.5-7.8% annually in the 2020s are attributed to high service sector  growth of over 55% whereas manufacturing sector growth hover around 13-17 %.

According to IMF's World Economic Outlook Update the West Asia conflict and closure of Strait of Hormuz has abruptly darkened the global Outlook. The duration and scale of conflict may impinge  both energy production and transportation. Assuming that conflict may not prolong global growth is projected to be 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027.advanced  economies growth is estimated to be 1.9% in 2025,1.8% in 2026 and 1.7 in 2027 within which US growth estimated is 2.1 in 2025,2.3 in 2026 and 2.1 % in 2027.The fastest growing Indian economy is estimated to grow 7.6% in 2025,6.5% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027.On the other hand China's  GDP estimate 5.0% in 2025,4.4 % in 2026 and 4.0 % for 2027.In the euro area growth is expected to decline from 1.4 % in 2025to 1.1% in 2026 and to 1.2% in 2027.

TECHNOLOGY AND DEVELOPMENT 

With regard to technological development traditionally India has been specializing in IT services software development rather than hardware. Moreover India's R&D expenditure remained low around 1% of GDP and patent filings and grants were very less, but made a rapid surge in very recent period. Similarly in recent times India's startup eco system is performing better in terms of scale,funding volume and deep- tech capability,On the otherhand since late 20th century China transformed from a labour intensive manufacturing to world's largest exporter of high technology products driven by a R&D investment of 1.4% of GDP.It follows that India is falling behind China in the R& D expenditure.  Despite huge efforts undertaken in recent period the semiconductor industry ambitions in India are far below that of China. Moreover China is

remain the largest producer of non renewable energy,electrical  vehicles EV ,in the world and their solar technology panels are much efficient and economical compared to others.India continues to be heavily dependent on Chinese is imports with trade deficit reaching $ 99.2 billion in fy 2024 -25.In labour intensive garment exports sector  apart ftom China even smaller countries like Bangladesh,Vietnam etc are offering stiff competition to India.Even the series of trade agreements made by the country can be effective only if the price and quality competitiveness is maintained by the export firms.

INEQUALITY IN INDIA

Studies have shown that economic inequality in India remains very high despite several decades of economic planning in the country.According to World Bank India ranks 4th in the in the global inequality indexwitj Gini index of 25.5.World inequality report 2026 showed that the top 10% of earners share 58% of national income while bottom half recieves only 15%. World inequality report 2026 indicatd that global top 10% owns 75,% of total wealth and bottom 50% own only little above 2%.India'top 10% earns 58 % of national.income bottom  50% recieves only 15% of national income.Inequality affects overall economic performance like adequate health care,nutrition,education etc.

ENERGY SECURITY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 

India's clean energy objective is anchored in the "Panchamrit commitment " announced at COP 26 with specific time bound targets designed to decarbonising the economy and ensuring energy security. The core climate commitments include reaching non fossil installed electricity capacity at 500 GW by 2030 and as of now country has surpassed 260 GW.,Renewable energy should meet 50% of the  country's aggregate energy requirements. and projected Carbon emissions should be one billion tonnes between now and 2030 .

Country should achieve net zero emissions by 2070 and reduce carbon intensity of the economy by 45% compared to 2005 levels. The West Asian crisis has disproportionately impacted countries like India which get about 60% of it's crude from the Middle East. The closure of state of Hormuz pushed India to depend on remaining coal and domestic gas reserves. Obviously in the Positive sense Strait of Hormuz blockade will force India to accelerate investments in  renewable in the absence of viable alternatives. 

CHALLENGES 

According to Gita Gopinath major challenge faced by India has been environmental degradation that creates structural supply shocks by reducing labor productivity, increasing health care costs and deterring  foreign investors from investment,in contrast tariffs are temporary and negotiable. According to 2022 world Bank study pollution causes approximately 1.7 million deaths in India annually accounting to 18% of total deaths. In fact pollution is instrumental to reduce GDP growth by estimated 0.56%. In India.Surjith Bhalla observed that India's economic policy makingis hindered by lack of accountability. AS per his observation entrenched bureaucratic influence combined with government in a "comfort zone" by electoral dominance  has led to a "comfort Zone" led  by structural reforms and a collapse in private investment despite political stability

CONCLUSION

It has to be noted that India has emerged as the fastest growing economy and digital revolution and direct beneficiary transfer (DBT) has rapidly revolutinised finanncial inclusion.However agriculturaI sector remained overcrowded and programs like making in India and PLI scheme have not generated adequate employment opportunities.Inequality in income and wealth remained rampant.Educational sector require quality assurance,transparency and inclusiveness so as to make skilling,upskilling and reskilling more meaningful.In short as emphasised by Amartya Sen development has to be democratic, freedom,transparent and inclusiveness so as to mitigate deprivation and enhance entitlement to all.